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Buying a flat in HK: what will the market do?
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| posted by test 254 days ago (edited 254 days ago) |
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quote:
Originally posted by ServerGuy
Mmmmm, yes but I have friends that purchased at HK$ 4m around 3 years ago and their place is now worth (and they have had offers of) HK$ 9.5m over the last 6 months.
Don't doubt it but hardly the norm just an anomaly if they really got those kinds of offers they should sell.
What area are they in?
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| posted by Gimpmask 254 days ago |
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3 years ago we were just coming out of SARS, and that's when the market started heading north
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| posted by test 254 days ago |
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In some areas yes, where I live they are very stable regardless of what the agents say.
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| posted by Paps of Jura 254 days ago |
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Scuse me but Test are you the one that said you are just arriving in HK?? Seem pretty well clued up to be someone who is just arriving in Jan ? No ?
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| posted by test 254 days ago |
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Nope been here many many years.
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| posted by Paps of Jura 254 days ago |
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Oh that's strange cos I thought yesterday you came on here looking for friends and saying you were arriving in Jan.... Bizarre
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| posted by Gimpmask 254 days ago |
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That was "time", Paps.
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| posted by Paps of Jura 254 days ago |
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Ahhhh getting me test's and time's mixed up
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| posted by test 254 days ago |
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It's a testy time !
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| posted by RastaMan 249 days ago |
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What do you people think of the soon-to-be happening crash of the stock exchange? Won't it leave many people broke, and therefore unable to afford a house?
Also, what about the US debt crisis? I believe the worst is still to come. Won't it affect the housing prices in HK as well?
Also, what about inflation in HK? Won't it affect the mortgage rate?
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my Grandfather.
Not screaming and in terror, like his passengers.
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| posted by Nasdaq_Index 249 days ago (edited 249 days ago) |
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If you are in for less than 5 years then I would say don’t even bother... Most of banks in Asia have taken a large proprietary stakes in major RE development in HK and China 2-4 years ago and they are all exiting within the next couple years.
How would this effect the market --both RE and Equity-- that would be a very hard tell. Few things to think about:
1-Will the market sustain in the current levels? Personally I hardly doubt it after 2008
2-You should expect good market news in 2008 pre and post the 8/8/8 – Olympics-
3-Everyone is already talking about a bubble in China and this bubble will be unique Vs what we have seen in US and Europe given the current regulatory law and conditions in China….
4-Market in Asia go through 3-4 years cycles then correct. Hong Kong had a good rally so far.
5-Hong Kong is one of the most volatile mkt in the planet, the mkt can tank over night if bad news break out (i.e. Sars, Credit) people tend to panic, cash out their assets and leave on the next available flight….
6- More and More bad news from U.S & some EU banks will come out and hopefully end by Apr-May.
Have to run but will continue later…..cheers
Remember! Respect is Earned not Given =)
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| The Maintenance Man |
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| posted by ServerGuy 249 days ago |
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There is an article in the SCMP today about property and the fact people think it will go up by between 15 and 30 per cent in 2008 due to what is expected to be a shortage of new property.
If you have got any problems with this site send them to Support@HKExpats.com Thanks
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| posted by RastaMan 249 days ago (edited 249 days ago) |
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I visited a high-rise building yesterday. Very posh and everything, finished in 2002. Surprisingly, they still have empty flats after 4 years! The price on the property's catalog is 6.5 million. The agent tried hard to convince me to offer 5 million for a flat, which would have involved me signing a check for 5% of its value there and then. Of course I didn't and when I arrived home I checked the resale value on Centaline: 3.5 million on the 11th floor. Gulp!
Also, do agents raise the price of properties to get a higher commission? When visiting a flat on sale for 3.5 million I asked the owner if it was negotiable, and it seemed that she was ready to negotiate, but the agent didn't want to.
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my Grandfather.
Not screaming and in terror, like his passengers.
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| posted by smog 249 days ago |
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The key thing to remember here is that the Agents are for all practical agents for the seller not the buyer - they are heavily incented to get the price as high as possible, which is clearly not in your best interests.
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| posted by Load Toad 249 days ago |
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Estate agents in this town are worth their weight....
.........in horse s**t.
Average by Intention.
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| posted by Nasdaq_Index 249 days ago (edited 249 days ago) |
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I lived in a building which was built few years ago in HK island before moving to DB, I remember my flat (~1000sqft) was selling for ~7MM even thought there were many vacant units which the developer held to keep the prices higher.
The developer also waived some of the fees, offered incentives and guaranteed the resale price of the flat after the first year just to buy in into his sell price.-- Sound like buy with put option  --
This doesn't sound like supply and demand issue to me, rather, the developer speculating on the current RE mkt and all the available units out there – Similar to any futures market— which can be very risky.
The best time to buy a propriety in Hong Kong was probably 3 to 5 years ago or post SARS.. People buying now thinking to make a quick buck will be taking on a huge risk, however if you buying with a long term goal (i.e. >5yrs at least) my 2 cents may not be applicable to you.
People who get into deals with the intention of exiting in 2-3 years up to five are big players (multi mm $ deals) who buy these properties first, repackage them into notes/swaps or any other instruments which can provide the economic benefits to inventors…The developer gets his money from the proceeds of the sells and the tenants gets stuck with the property for 15-30 yrs. In the end the all the risk shift back to the investors & tenants (i.e. regular people like us). So my advice for people who their flats appreciated 35%-50%/60% is to sell out and watch the market, don't get too greedy unless you are looking for a 100% which will not happen in million years. Just look at the US market, I know people who’s property appreciated more than 50% and they were too greedy to realize their gains and now they back to square one.
P.S. Unless you realize your gains and see them in hard $$, then your gains/appreciation is all unrealized and hence can easily deflate.
Remember! Respect is Earned not Given =)
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| posted by Gimpmask 249 days ago |
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Rastaman> When was that transaction for the 11th floor? And have you checked transactions around the same area? How do the prices per square foot compare?
Frankly, the rental market is crazy as well with people asking silly prices for doghouses.
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| posted by RastaMan 249 days ago |
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Gimpmask, the transaction on the 11th floor was a couple of weeks ago. Prices per square foot nearby are a bit higher. I.e. the property in question is cheaper, even though much newer (10 years newer) and with a stunning view over the sea and Tai Po. It was built by a bad construction company (owned by the former Mrs Cutie, or what was she called? That billionaire with pony tails and colorful clothes?).
Nasdaq_Index, I am not looking for a quick buck, but for a property to live in. My landlord wants to sell the flat where I am living, and I have to go out. It seems like the price of rental is increasing too, and I would probably spend as much for the rental as I would spend for the mortgage, so it probably makes sense to buy rather than rent, doesn't it? I am planning to stay in HK another 3 years or so.
Thanks a lot for your comments.
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my Grandfather.
Not screaming and in terror, like his passengers.
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| Regular Member |
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| posted by smog 249 days ago |
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Certainly where I am (in the mid-levels) it seems to be about 10-15% cheaper overall to buy than to rent.
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Keymaker - "Here Kitty! Nice Kitty! Daddy's got a little surprise for you!"
_______________________________________________________________
http://smogsblog.wordpress.com for more of the same
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| posted by Gimpmask 249 days ago (edited 249 days ago) |
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quote:
Originally posted by RastaMan
It was built by a bad construction company (owned by the former Mrs Cutie, or what was she called? That billionaire with pony tails and colorful clothes?).
Chinachem Group. And I guess they need the money to pay for the lawyers' bill now.
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Having testicles is like being chained to the village idiot.
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