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Hang Seng sets another record
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| posted by xpat-Aussie 229 days ago |
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This time, it's another record brken for the biggest single day points drop in history, 2061.23 points, or 8.65%. If you copped that on the chin on the long side, it'll be a sad old night at your joint tonight!
For those of us who anticipated such things before removing themselves from civilisation for a month, well we are laughing all the way to the bankrupcy! My long positions lost around 7.5% today, but my hedges are up from 66% to 750%! So at the end of the day, I'll be buying the beer around here tonight.
A bit of reality must be considered here. The main index (HSI) has lost 21.7% this month alone! (That's 6,055 points). Since the previous peak back on Octover 30, 2007, she's fallen 9,881 points, or 31.2%!
A technical correction is a 10% drop, this has to be called what it is... a bear market! (I think that a bear market is defined technically as a 20% drop, but those smarter than me will be able to refute or confirm that). Now, pardon the punn, but bearing in mind, a bear market can last as long as a few months, to as long as a few years. I don't see much on the short term horizon that suggests that we will see new highs in the market anytime soon, so if you want to go long, buy some inverse ETF's in the US during the upcoming bounce, but manage them closely with very tight technical stops. I would also be avoiding banks (except for short term trades) and retailers and manufacturers who have high US exposure (names such as Esprit, Li&Fung, Vtech etc...). I think local property, (now that the prices are getting slightly more reasonable, but not just yet) resources (gold miners are a good hedge), and companies exposed only (or primarily) to the china market (large caps such as China Mobile etc). This is where I'll be looking during the week. If you find good value, you should do two things. First, tell us all about it so we can get our share, and second, make a trading plan and buy the bastard!
If you have the time, and the technical know how, buy up plenty of local put warrants (my bet would go on out of the money puts on the Hang Seng, and HSCEI, with expiry dates a minimum of 3 months from now). But again, manage the stops very carefully.
Disclaimer: If you buy stocks, warrants or ETF's because of this post, all your hair will fall out and your mother in law will come to live with you... and you may lose money.
"...and once you have tasted flight,
you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward,
for there you have been and there you long to return...."
-Leonardo DaVinci
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| posted by Paps of Jura 229 days ago |
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More willy waving ??
Dib Dob nib knob
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| posted by smog 229 days ago |
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The Hang Seng is still 10% up on a year ago. India and China still 40-60% up. Those are pretty good returns in my book.
_______________________________________________________________
Keymaker - "Here Kitty! Nice Kitty! Daddy's got a little surprise for you!"
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http://smogsblog.wordpress.com for more of the same
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| posted by EmilyBronte 229 days ago |
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Having known nor understood nothing about the Stock Market, I am finding these posts very informative- ta!
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| posted by Juno Watt 229 days ago |
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I don't think I ever not will nor neither, gor blimey guv.
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| posted by Load Toad 229 days ago |
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I'm glad beer is pretty constant - got 4x 1664's at 120 in Stag tonight & a free packet of cheese and onion crisps.
Average by Intention.
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| posted by Juno Watt 229 days ago |
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Cheese and onion -- that's a nice dividend LT.
What are you looking at regarding mid-term liability, i.e. state of head tomorrow morning?
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| posted by Load Toad 229 days ago |
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Off to SZ to look at some short term trades on booze - hope to make a tidy long term putt on burds. Don't see much activity on crisps but have found a churrascaria that I hope will pay dividends.
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| posted by HKBloke 229 days ago |
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so xpat - you changed your mind re recession yet or still Mr Bull ?
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| posted by HKBloke 229 days ago |
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US cuts rates by 75 bps - lets see what happens in the next hour !
panic panic panic
helicopter ben is going round and round
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| posted by Load Toad 229 days ago |
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F'kin amazin' all these clever people in banks, on the floor and in govt....months of goin' up - everyone is a hero with big b*****ks - 3 days of going down - p**sing in their diapers.
Bag o' w**k lads - bag o' w**k.
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| posted by HKBloke 229 days ago |
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LT I completely agree you. have never owned a share in my life and never intend to....quoting the classic football chant....
you only sing when your winning...
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| posted by Zebedee 229 days ago |
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What fun ! 75 Basis points, didn't think they'd actually have the balls to do it, but seeing as No.2 Economy just lost USD369 Billion in 2 days, they had to act !
Watch HK property fly........
Z
Whatever...
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| posted by Load Toad 229 days ago |
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It is amusing - it really is.
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| posted by Zebedee 229 days ago |
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What is amusing, last time US did 75 bps cut was 26 years ago....1982 !
22nd January 2008 could really turn out to be one of the most extraordinary days in a whole financial career !
Z
Whatever...
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| posted by HKBloke 229 days ago |
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nothing here is amusing as it affects people's pensions and livelyhood...but we are living in interesting times.
Unfortunately this is not about today - it's about the next 2 to 3 years.
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| posted by Zebedee 229 days ago |
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Agree HKBloke...
I think we were being 'tongue-in-cheek' about the Fed, didn't akchully mean amusing to all the poor folk who will undoubtedly suffer......seeing the US Fed being kicked about, is amusing, nothing more !
Whatever...
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| posted by Zebedee 229 days ago |
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Some stuff coming out on Bloomberg........after the 75 bps cut, FTSE jumped nearly 2%, but as it sinks in, seems financial managers starting to now think more about the cut and how bad things must really be.......FTSE now back down 1.0% !
Whatever...
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| posted by HKBloke 229 days ago |
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All euro mkts bounced after the news but then rapidly slipped back into the red. NY just opened and down 450 (~2.8%) initially.
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| posted by smog 228 days ago |
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Well yes, but the Dow now back to 70 pts down and climbing very rapidly.
I really wish I had my $1M on new cash out of HSBC to invest in the morning...
_______________________________________________________________
Keymaker - "Here Kitty! Nice Kitty! Daddy's got a little surprise for you!"
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http://smogsblog.wordpress.com for more of the same
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| posted by xpat-Aussie 228 days ago |
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I too thought they had to cut, but 75 points was ineed a surprise. All this will be is a short term stop gap. The US will go lower. We might get a nice short squeeze out of this drop, maybe pick up a few quick bucks on names like SHK Property, or Cheung Kong Holdings... but I would only be in it for the short term.
If you've ridden this decline without any insurance, use the bounce to get into cash would be my advice... as tempting as it is to grab some bargains, I'm too pessimistic in the short term to buy just yet. I want to be sure that we have reversed the current trend (downward).
PS: FTSE finished up nearly 3% which is a massive jump by their standards. Apple will drop more tomorrow (currently down nealry 12% in after hours trading) which will drag the Nasdaq down even further. There's not much good news to give the bulls control. In short, we're f**ked!
quote:
so xpat - you changed your mind re recession yet or still Mr Bull ?
Mate, you know me... I'm a permabull! I'm not stupid though. I still think the US will avoid a recession, but the extent of the slowdown will make it feel like one. I use real money, so I never bet against the trend. As they say, bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered... :D
"...and once you have tasted flight,
you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward,
for there you have been and there you long to return...."
-Leonardo DaVinci
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